How did Austin homes do in Sept?

If you were wondering why the analysts keep talking about Austin and saying that Austin may be one of the first cities in the nation to emerge from the down market, these numbers may in fact help paint a picture for you. No person has a crystal ball that is clear enough to predict where we are, but looking into the rear view mirror, the numbers are starting to favor the view that Austin may have already hit bottom. Since we never experienced a huge run-up in home prices and the "bubble" that many cities saw over the past several years, (or longer), the changes to our landscape may not be a dramatic. What goes up a little bit, may not go down a whole lot...before it balances out.

	Sept 2009	Sept 2008	YoY Change
# Sold homes	1639	1629	1%
Median Sold	$188,500	$185,000	2%
Med SQFT	1919	1909	1%
Median DOM	40	48	-17%
Not Sold	1323	1729	-23%
Not Sold %	45%	51%	-13%

My thoughts: I look at the median home prices because this tells us what the middle of the market looks like for the Greater Austin area. The actual price where homes sold are up by almost 2%. The number of days on market is down (YoY). The percentage of homes on the market that did not sell is down compared to last September. This is all pretty darn good news.

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Inventory. Realtors track the market conditions by looking at inventory. Inventory is a measurement of how many homes are for sale, divided by the the number of homes that are selling. Generally speaking, more than 7 months of inventory is is considered a "Buyers Market"--a condition that gives buyers more advantage in determining market value. Less than 7 months of inventory is generally considered a "Seller's Market"--where sellers have more advantage in determining market value.

Sales Price Range	#Sold	DOM	Active	Mo. Inv
$149,999 or under	476	49	1647	3.37
$150,000 to $199,999	422	55	1615	3.52
$200,000 to $249,999	254	74	1119	4.37
$250,000 to $299,999	139	75	920	5.03
$300,000 to $349,999	99	87	597	5.60
$350,000 to $399,999	71	100	576	6.52
$400,000 to $449,999	55	90	392	7.40
$450,000 to $499,999	33	77	359	11.10
$500,000 to $549,999	21	119	193	7.24
$550,000 to $599,999	10	124	214	13.66
$600,000 to $699,999	16	105	308	11.85
$700,000 to $799,999	12	125	201	15.87
$800,000 to $899,999	8	85	174	16.84
$900,000 to $999,999	6	121	124	23.25
$1,000,000 or over	18	141	577	35.33

Note:  Looking at these numbers, it is easy to see that the most expensive homes currently available in the Austin Market have a lot more inventory, giving buyers more choice and more leverage to negotiate. But looking at the homes under $300,000, sellers seem to have more control over the pricing and market value. Good time for some buyers and a good time for some sellers as well.

Of course, every property is ultimately unique, and every seller different. These numbers simply tell us which way the winds are blowing and give us encouragement that the Austin market is still a healthy and prosperous market. If you are not sure what all this means to you, give me a call or email me and we can discuss it.

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